If the prices of almost 600 are correct, it will be many years before an upgrade.
Maxon has you covered there. They jack the price way up if you fall off their yearly upgrade fee. When I last spoke to Maxon about upgrading my R21 license, the ask from the US operation was higher than I originally paid for my perpetual license. It pretty much forces you onto subscription if you let your old perpetual license lapse.
I pretty much read the FAQ as leaning towards “You need to subscribe.” This was the clincher for me:
To provide the best customer experience and performance, we truly believe all customers should be running the latest version. Cutting-edge technology and performance require agile development and delivery. All Maxon products, including ZBrush are fully dependent upon third-party hardware, operating systems and software solutions. In order to maintain compatibility with the latest hardware, drivers and host application updates, our development teams are constantly updating, optimizing and ensuring stability.
And we all know how you stay on the “latest version” at Maxon–subscribe. I know they haven’t released the real maintenance costs yet, but I anticipate a couple years of a “ZSA” (Zbrush Service Agreement) to keep you current and then they’ll drop it and the price will way up.
Since Maxon has done it once and is pretty unrepentant, I don’t see why they wouldn’t go the same subscription plan with the ZB base. If they had a better answer, they would have said so already. If you’re in for the long haul, I’d plan subscription into your future budget a la Adobe.
I don’t blame the Pixologic team–this isn’t coming from LA, it’s what’s coming from Maxon HQ.
Sorry to sound so jaded, but I’ve seen this movie a few times now.