Can I toss in my two cents concerning the next upgrade and the future release of 2.0? It goes like this…
First, a little (pre-ZBrush) personal history: Last February I read a small review of ZBrush in one of the graphics magazines and decided it was time to take another look. I downloaded the 1.23 demo (or was it the 1.51 by then?) and at the same time discovered this fantastic community at ZBCentral. My member number was 3401.
Within weeks I was hooked and I decided to buy. I purchased my copy the very week 1.55b was released.
Since then there has been an accelerating momentum in both new owner/users and new members joining ZBCentral (now its closing in on 9000 members. In less than a year the forum membership has almost tripled!)
Then, as teasers about the next release started appearing I noticed that both Pixolator and Matthew were careful and consistant about mentioning that the next upgrade would be free, and also that it would be the LAST free upgrade. Very precise wording on that, and I wondered why. Actually, it was obvious.
With software, any hint of a new version to be released can stop current sales dead in the water if new buyers think they will soon be hit with an upgrade fee.
Through tantalizing posts and guarded responses to queries, they were advertising several of the great new features AND emphasizing the FREE upgrade… and the new sales just kept rolling along, especially on the heels of the well-deserved publicity and word-of-mouth ZBrush has received. (Viral marketing at its best.)
A free upgrade builds good will for faithful userbase who will appreciate all the wonderful, updated features it sports, and they’ll tell other artists all about it.
I bet a year or two from now most of those same satisfied users will be happy to pay the upgrade price for version 2.0 when they finally see all the amazing advances THAT release will contain. (I certainly will be.)
Will sales drop off after the upgrade is released? Maybe not. There are going to be lots of modelers and game art people who will learn how valuable ZBrush and the new features could be for production of their art - and that will likely result in a rush of new sales. Pixologic is probably depending heavily on that bounce.
Now some pure speculation based on absolutely NO evidence. I strongly suspect that version 2.0 WILL involve a complete rewrite of ZBrush, from the ground up, including a conversion to a true WINDOWS interface and environment. (Not sure what that might mean for ZBrush Mac users…)
A similar thing happened when Autodesk moved 3dStudio from DOS to Windows. The new environment allowed them to design a whole new and much more powerful interface with scrolling side-panels and tabbed menus and introduced the potential for sophisticated 3rd party plug-ins. It took them several years of secret development to get the first Windows release ready.
By the same token, I’d speculate the day that version 2.0 IS announced, anyone who buys a copy of ZBrush version 1.? after that date will get a free upgrade copy of 2.0, or be required to only pay the difference in the purchase price. Again, there will be minimal loss of interim sales.
Oh yeah, one more (reluctant) speculation. 2.0 will probably be sold through dealers. No more online purchases… which may mean the nature of Pixologic as a company and its user base will likely change, forever.
And who knows, perhaps the company will have succeeded so well by that point that it will be purchased by one of the bigger 3D software companies.
It is fun to speculate about this stuff and a year or so from now I’ll be interested to see how well my crystal ball was working…
Sven